Before the 2010 season, I got familiar with the idea of regression to the mean. This concept illustrates the phenomenon of an outlying statistic in one season (such as an extraordinary ERA) coming back down to earth in the next, simply by chance.
My study examined how the best pitchers (in terms of ERA) fared in the following season, dating back to 2000. To measure this, I (somewhat arbitrarily) choose 2.50 as the cutoff for ERA.
Here's what I found...
There are many different effective strategies when it comes to drafting starting pitchers. Some will hoard the top talents in the year after the year of the pitcher, while others will rely on weekly spot-starts. Both approaches work, but I have employed a much different scheme in recent seasons:
Ideally, you own just one or two reliable starters. They must maintain a consistently low ERA (preferably no higher than 3.50—3.75) and WHIP (Carl Pavano was a great example last year). Strikeouts aren't important...
As a fantasy baseball writer, I evaluate countless advanced statistics every day. Most of the time, I get my information from FanGraphs. However, I recently found another useful site in MoneyStats.
MoneyStats has created a starting pitcher game log using a “runs received” number to better help you with your starting pitcher decisions. They also track leads/deficits when pitchers exit a game, and no decision totals. Perhaps most valuable is their original MoneyStats Value player rating system.
Here is a quick taste of the unique stats MoneyStats has to offer...
Over the last four months, I’ve poured hundreds of hours into researching, ranking and re-ranking the top 100 players in fantasy baseball. This Big Board is much different than most, however. I’m going to give you something you can’t get anywhere else free of charge.
Instead of just listing names without justification, Fantasy Baseball Insiders provides not only MLB Odds and the top-100 overall rankings, but includes a few nuggets on each player, and links to an in-depth individual analysis complete with 2010 stats, three-year averages, and calculated 2011 projections!
These rankings and projections consider past achievements and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings...
Word hit Wednesday morning that Cardinals’ ace Adam Wainwright has been flown back to St. Louis to have his right elbow examined by team doctors.
The Cardinals (and fantasy managers) across the country are holding their collective breaths, but it’s expected that Wainwright will undergo Tommy John surgery, which would sideline him for 12-18 months.
This is a devastating blow to not only the Cardinals, but those who own Wainwright as well. The 29-year-old was among the top-ranked starting pitchers this season, checking in as the No. 2 pitcher (27th overall) in our rankings...
Friday, October 7, 2011
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