Before the 2010 season, I got familiar with the idea of regression to the mean. This concept illustrates the phenomenon of an outlying statistic in one season (such as an extraordinary ERA) coming back down to earth in the next, simply by chance.
My study examined how the best pitchers (in terms of ERA) fared in the following season, dating back to 2000. To measure this, I (somewhat arbitrarily) choose 2.50 as the cutoff for ERA.
Here's what I found...
Last March, I conducted a study on pitchers who’ve posted a single-season ERA of 2.50 or less since 2000. (You can read that article here.)
In my research, I made several interesting discoveries. First, there were 11 different sub-2.50 ERA seasons between 2000 and 2005. Between 2006 and 2008, however, there were none.
2009 saw four such pitching performances, as Zack Greinke (2.16), Chris Carpenter (2.24), Tim Lincecum (2.48), and Felix Hernandez (2.49) all posted ERAs below 2.50.
This recent trend supports the notion that hitters are no longer juicing, and thus pitchers are becoming more dominant. (Keep this in mind as you prepare for your 2011 fantasy drafts.)...
2009 was a remarkable year for the most elite pitchers in baseball, as four hurlers posted a sub-2.50 ERA. While this fact is incredible enough, so too is the reality that exactly zero pitchers accomplished this feat in the three years previous to '09.
From 2000 to 2005, there were 11 instances of a pitcher posting an ERA under 2.50 with a minimum of 150 innings. This irregularity, when compared to the three-year drought from 2006 to 2008 is somewhat puzzling, though essentially meaningless to fantasy owners...
Friday, October 7, 2011
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