Before the 2010 season, I got familiar with the idea of regression to the mean. This concept illustrates the phenomenon of an outlying statistic in one season (such as an extraordinary ERA) coming back down to earth in the next, simply by chance.
My study examined how the best pitchers (in terms of ERA) fared in the following season, dating back to 2000. To measure this, I (somewhat arbitrarily) choose 2.50 as the cutoff for ERA.
Here's what I found...
There are many different effective strategies when it comes to drafting starting pitchers. Some will hoard the top talents in the year after the year of the pitcher, while others will rely on weekly spot-starts. Both approaches work, but I have employed a much different scheme in recent seasons:
Ideally, you own just one or two reliable starters. They must maintain a consistently low ERA (preferably no higher than 3.50—3.75) and WHIP (Carl Pavano was a great example last year). Strikeouts aren't important...
As a fantasy baseball writer, I evaluate countless advanced statistics every day. Most of the time, I get my information from FanGraphs. However, I recently found another useful site in MoneyStats.
MoneyStats has created a starting pitcher game log using a “runs received” number to better help you with your starting pitcher decisions. They also track leads/deficits when pitchers exit a game, and no decision totals. Perhaps most valuable is their original MoneyStats Value player rating system.
Here is a quick taste of the unique stats MoneyStats has to offer...
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings...
Much like Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander has given us three very different looks in the last three seasons.
In 2008, Verlander posted ugly strikeout (7.30) and walk (3.90) rates, and an even uglier ERA (4.84) on his way to losing 17 games.
In 2009, Verlander flipped the switch, setting career bests in K/9 (10.09), BB/9 (2.36), ERA (3.45) and wins (19). His FIP (2.80) and xFIP (3.26) suggested he was (and would continue to be) even better.
2010 brought a more realistic, yet still very good version of Verlander. In his fourth consecutive season logging 200-plus innings, Verlander settled in with 18 wins, a 3.37 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.79 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9. His FIP (2.97) and xFIP (3.68) didn’t suggest anything out of the ordinary...
Friday, October 7, 2011
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