Before the 2010 season, I got familiar with the idea of regression to the mean. This concept illustrates the phenomenon of an outlying statistic in one season (such as an extraordinary ERA) coming back down to earth in the next, simply by chance.
My study examined how the best pitchers (in terms of ERA) fared in the following season, dating back to 2000. To measure this, I (somewhat arbitrarily) choose 2.50 as the cutoff for ERA.
Here's what I found...
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Last March, I conducted a study on pitchers who’ve posted a single-season ERA of 2.50 or less since 2000. (You can read that article here.)
In my research, I made several interesting discoveries. First, there were 11 different sub-2.50 ERA seasons between 2000 and 2005. Between 2006 and 2008, however, there were none.
2009 saw four such pitching performances, as Zack Greinke (2.16), Chris Carpenter (2.24), Tim Lincecum (2.48), and Felix Hernandez (2.49) all posted ERAs below 2.50.
This recent trend supports the notion that hitters are no longer juicing, and thus pitchers are becoming more dominant. (Keep this in mind as you prepare for your 2011 fantasy drafts.)...
Game number 20 of 162 in the Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight summer-long journey featured a game that provided a whopping 25 runs on 32 hits between two struggling A.L. powerhouses…
Game No. 20 – Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Mike Lowell was the most productive hitter in Monday night’s slug fest, going 4-for-4 with three doubles, a walk, two runs and four RBI. In just his ninth start of the season, Lowell hit sixth as Boston’s DH while David Ortiz sat against Angels’ lefty Joe Saunders, who yielded seven runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings.
We’re just three days removed from Opening Day, yet Fantasy Baseball Insiders has already scored four games as part of our journey to watch 162. Wednesday featured the Giants/Astros matchup in Houston…
Game No. 4 – San Francisco Giants vs. Houston Astros
Edgar Renteria was the story of this game, going 5-for-5 with a walk, one run and two RBI. San Francisco’s shortstop is now 8-for-11 on the season. The 34-year-old hasn’t been fantasy-relevant since 2008 when he hit 12 HRs and stole 11 bases while batting .332 in 494 at-bats...
Friday, October 7, 2011
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