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The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse Revisited: How The Elite Starting Pitchers of 2010 Fared in 2011

Friday, October 7, 2011

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The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse Revisited: How The Elite Starting Pitchers of 2010 Fared in 2011

Before the 2010 season, I got familiar with the idea of regression to the mean. This concept illustrates the phenomenon of an outlying statistic in one season (such as an extraordinary ERA) coming back down to earth in the next, simply by chance. My study examined how the best pitchers (in terms of ERA) fared in the following season, dating back to 2000. To measure this, I (somewhat arbitrarily) choose 2.50 as the cutoff for ERA. Here's what I found...

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: The Top 30 Starting Pitchers

Thursday, March 31, 2011

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: The Top 30 Starting Pitchers

There are many different effective strategies when it comes to drafting starting pitchers. Some will hoard the top talents in the year after the year of the pitcher, while others will rely on weekly spot-starts. Both approaches work, but I have employed a much different scheme in recent seasons: Ideally, you own just one or two reliable starters. They must maintain a consistently low ERA (preferably no higher than 3.50—3.75) and WHIP (Carl Pavano was a great example last year). Strikeouts aren't important...

30 Teams in 30 Days: 2011 Boston Red Sox Fantasy Baseball Preview

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

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30 Teams in 30 Days: 2011 Boston Red Sox Fantasy Baseball Preview

The Boston Red Sox were as busy as any team in baseball this offseason. Although they lost Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre to free agency, the Red Sox made two shift-of-power acquisitions in Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez...

The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Hernandez, Halladay, Buchholz, Johnson & Wainwright May Regress in 2011

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

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The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Hernandez, Halladay, Buchholz, Johnson & Wainwright May Regress in 2011

Last March, I conducted a study on pitchers who’ve posted a single-season ERA of 2.50 or less since 2000. (You can read that article here.) In my research, I made several interesting discoveries. First, there were 11 different sub-2.50 ERA seasons between 2000 and 2005. Between 2006 and 2008, however, there were none. 2009 saw four such pitching performances, as Zack Greinke (2.16), Chris Carpenter (2.24), Tim Lincecum (2.48), and Felix Hernandez (2.49) all posted ERAs below 2.50. This recent trend supports the notion that hitters are no longer juicing, and thus pitchers are becoming more dominant. (Keep this in mind as you prepare for your 2011 fantasy drafts.)...

Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight 5/3: Red Sox’s Mike Lowell Turns Back the Clock

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

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Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight 5/3: Red Sox’s Mike Lowell Turns Back the Clock

Game number 20 of 162 in the Fantasy Baseball Insiders Tonight summer-long journey featured a game that provided a whopping 25 runs on 32 hits between two struggling A.L. powerhouses… Game No. 20 – Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox Mike Lowell was the most productive hitter in Monday night’s slug fest, going 4-for-4 with three doubles, a walk, two runs and four RBI. In just his ninth start of the season, Lowell hit sixth as Boston’s DH while David Ortiz sat against Angels’ lefty Joe Saunders, who yielded seven runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings.

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