Before the 2010 season, I got familiar with the idea of regression to the mean. This concept illustrates the phenomenon of an outlying statistic in one season (such as an extraordinary ERA) coming back down to earth in the next, simply by chance.
My study examined how the best pitchers (in terms of ERA) fared in the following season, dating back to 2000. To measure this, I (somewhat arbitrarily) choose 2.50 as the cutoff for ERA.
Here's what I found...
There are many different effective strategies when it comes to drafting starting pitchers. Some will hoard the top talents in the year after the year of the pitcher, while others will rely on weekly spot-starts. Both approaches work, but I have employed a much different scheme in recent seasons:
Ideally, you own just one or two reliable starters. They must maintain a consistently low ERA (preferably no higher than 3.50—3.75) and WHIP (Carl Pavano was a great example last year). Strikeouts aren't important...
Over the last four months, I’ve poured hundreds of hours into researching, ranking and re-ranking the top 100 players in fantasy baseball. This Big Board is much different than most, however. I’m going to give you something you can’t get anywhere else free of charge.
Instead of just listing names without justification, Fantasy Baseball Insiders provides not only MLB Odds and the top-100 overall rankings, but includes a few nuggets on each player, and links to an in-depth individual analysis complete with 2010 stats, three-year averages, and calculated 2011 projections!
These rankings and projections consider past achievements and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings...
To help keep fantasy managers on top of injuries this spring, Fantasy Baseball Insiders has launched a team-by-team injury report. This list will be updated every night so you can stay up to date on current injuries. Bookmark this page for an easy return. This is a must have as you prepare for your upcoming draft!
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings...
Friday, October 7, 2011
4 Comments