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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 99: How Good Was Detroit Tigers’ Max Scherzer Last Season?

Sun, Mar 20, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Max Scherzer was relatively impressive with the Diamondbacks in 2009, his first full season as a big league starter. The former first-round pick posted a 4.12 ERA (3.81 FIP), 1.34 WHIP, 9.19 K/9, 3.33 BB/9 in 170 1/3 innings.

Scherzer was then traded to Detroit the following offseason in the three-team Austin Jackson/Curtis Granderson deal.

Scherzer’s got off to a rough start with the Tigers in 2010. Through his first eight starts, the right-hander owned a 7.28 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. His strikeout rate (5.57) left much to be desired.

The Tigers sent Scherzer to Triple-A for two starts in May, where he dominated inferior competition.

In his first start back with Detroit, he struck out 14 batters in just 5 2/3 innings. He caught fire mid-way through June, and became one of the best pitchers in baseball after his promotion, posting a ridiculous 2.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.26 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 in his remaining 153 2/3 innings.

For the season, Scherzer finished with totals very similar to his 2009 campaign with Arizona:

  • 2009: 170 1/3 IP, 4.12 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 9.19 K/9, 3.33 BB/9
  • 2010: 195 2/3 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 8.46 K/9, 3.22 BB/9

Scherzer’s 2010 BABIP (.297) and LOB rate (74.9 percent) confirmed the legitimacy of his season stats, thus paving the way for a positive outlook in 2011.

The 26-year-old will be the Tigers’ No. 2 starter this season. While fantasy managers shouldn’t expect his 2011 season totals to mirror his 2010 second-half stats, he should be very good nonetheless. Expect a hefty contribution in strikeouts and a low-to-mid-three’s ERA.

  IP W K/9 BB/9 ERA WHIP
2010 stats 195.2 12 8.46 3.22 3.50 1.25
3-year average 140.2 7 9.04 3.28 3.69 1.28
2011 FBI Forecast 204 14 9.00 3.20 3.50 1.25

 

Image courtesy of: Tom Hagerty

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