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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 100: Is Kansas City Royals’ Joakim Soria Due For a Regression?

Sun, Mar 20, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Kansas City Royals’ closer Joakim Soria has become one of the most reliable relievers over the last three seasons. Since 2008, he ranks in the top five among full-time closers (min. 150 innings) in many important statistical categories:

  • Saves: 115 (fifth)
  • ERA: 1.84 (second)
  • WHIP: 1.01 (third)
  • BB/9: 2.47 (fifth)

Soria also ranks 12th in strikeout rate (9.97) based on the same criteria.

Last year, Soria set career-highs in saves (43), strikeout rate (9.73) and walk rate (2.19). He also posted the fifth-lowest ERA (1.78) among full-time closers.

Soria’s xFIP (2.99) suggests a regression may be due in 2011, but advanced stats are much tougher to judge on relievers than they are on starters. Perhaps his ERA will slip into the low twos, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t produce as a top-five closer.

2010 stats 65.2 43 9.73 2.19 1.78 1.05
3-year average 62 38 9.97 2.47 1.84 1.01
2011 FBI Forecast 63 39 9.90 2.35 2.20 1.06


Image courtesy of: Minda Haas

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