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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 89: Why Washington Nationals’ Jayson Isn’t Werth His Current Draft Position

Thu, Mar 17, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Jayson Werth has one of the most impressive three-year averages (92 runs, 29 HRs, 84 RBI, 18 steals, .279 batting average) among all outfielders, yet he ranks just inside the top 90 on my 2011 big board.

Werth’s current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 49, and his Yahoo! Composite rank is 60.

So why the low ranking from this Insider?

Werth’s new home park and lineup will almost certainly dent his 2011 value. Consider Werth’s 2010 home/road splits:

  • Home: 284 at-bats, 18 HRs, 51 RBI, .320/.401/.599
  • Road: 270 at-bats, 9 HRs, 34 RBI, .270/.375/.463

Now consider Werth’s totals as the No. 5 hitter in the Phillies’ 2010 lineup behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, and in front of Raul Ibanez:

  • 491 at-bats, 99 runs, 27 HRs, 82 RBI, 12 steals, .312/.402/.566

Now consider Werth’s move from Citizens Bank Park to Nationals Park, sandwiched between Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche in Washington’s lineup. This isn’t to say Zimmerman and LaRoche aren’t very good hitters, but Werth’s run-scoring and run-producing opportunities will be limited in a less potent lineup and in a much bigger ballpark.

Werth’s .352 BABIP (career .333) from last season is likely unrepeatable, but a .270-plus batting average is realistic. Given his new home park, expect no more than 25 HRs and 15 steals in 2011.

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 652 106 27 85 13 .296
3-year average 603 92 29 84 18 .279
2011 FBI Forecast 640 80 23 90 15 .279

 

Image courtesy of: Serena A. Thaw

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