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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 79: Has Philadelphia Phillies’ Roy Oswalt Returned to Ace Form?

Thu, Mar 10, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

The 2008 and 2009 seasons suggested Roy Oswalt’s ace status had been stripped after proving to be the best pitcher in baseball not named Pedro or Johan from 2002 to 2007, posting a 7.26 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, 3.11 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 212 innings per year.

Oswalt dominated the first half of 2010 in Houston, however, to the tune of a 3.42 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He was traded to the Phillies in late July, and stepped his game up even further while continuing to show why he’s the best second-half pitcher in baseball. In 12 starts (82 2/3 innings) with Philadelphia, Oswalt posted a ridiculous 1.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 7.95 K/9 and 2.29 BB/9.

So is that it? Should Oswalt be drafted as an elite starter in 2011?

Not quite.

Oswalt’s FIP (3.27) and xFIP (3.45) were slightly elevated in comparison to his season ERA of 2.76, but not enough to suggest he’ll implode in 2011. His career-low .253 BABIP, however, likely aided his performance.

A slight regression is likely in the cards for Oswalt this season, though his 2009 campaign (4.12 ERA, 3.13 career) was clearly an outlier.

Oswalt’s four-pitch arsenal was as good as it’s ever been last season, likely benefiting from the presence of teammate Roy Halladay:

  • Fastball: 55.4 percent, 17.6 runs above average
  • Slider: 14.8 percent, 5.7 runs above average
  • Curveball: 14.7 percent, 7.3 runs above average
  • Changeup: 15.1 percent, 7.1 runs above average

Don’t expect a strikeout rate above eight again, but his exceptional walk rate should help keep his WHIP under 1.20, while his ERA should settle in around 3.35.

  IP W K/9 BB/9 ERA WHIP
2010 stats 211.2 13 8.21 2.34 2.76 1.03
3-year average 200.2 13 7.42 2.15 3.44 1.18
2011 FBI Forecast 208 15 7.50 2.20 3.35 1.17

 

Image courtesy of: Jay Rabin

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