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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 72: Did Atlanta Braves’ Tommy Hanson Improve or Regress Last Season?

Tue, Mar 8, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Even though Tommy Hanson’s ERA slipped (2.89 in ’09, 3.33 in ’10), and his strikeout rate declined (8.18 to 7.68), Hanson actually improved in many areas in 2010.

First, and perhaps most importantly, Hanson limited his free passes. After allowing 3.24 walks per nine in 2009, Hanson posted an impressive 2.49 walk rate last season.

Hanson’s fastball/slider combo (which accounted for 85 percent of his pitches in 2010) stymied N.L. hitters to the tune of 15.8 and 11.5 runs above average, respectively.

Although he struggled in May and June, Hanson dominated the second-half with a 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 6.19 K/9 and 1.97 BB/9, thanks in large part to a sub-.220 BABIP after July.

Looking forward to 2011, the 24-year-old should continue to improve on his already impressive track record. Although his plate discipline stats wont blow you away (yet), his strikeout/walk rates and ERA are extremely impressive considering his age. In fact, since his big league debut in 2009, only 10 starters (min. 300 innings) have an ERA better than Hanson’s 3.16 mark.  And he’s only going to get better.

  IP W K/9 BB/9 ERA WHIP
2010 stats 202.2 10 7.68 2.49 3.33 1.17
2011 FBI Forecast 205 15 8.30 2.70 3.30 1.17

 

Image courtesy of: Keith Allison

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