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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 53: Will New York Yankees’ Derek Jeter Bounce Back From a Career Worst Season?

Thu, Feb 24, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

After 14 straight seasons of batting .290 or higher, Derek Jeter bottomed out in arguably the worst season of his career in 2010, posting a .270 batting clip. His OBP (.340), slugging percentage (.370) and OPS (.710) were also career lows.

Not coincidentally, Jeter’s .307 BABIP was by far the worst of his career, and well below his notoriously high .356 career mark.

Notwithstanding, Jeter still managed to score 111 runs and steal 18 bases, numbers worthy of fantasy consideration no matter what his batting average was.

So what does 2011 have in store for the 36-year-old captain?

It’d be easy to chalk up his career-worst 2010 season to old age, but one thing could explain a big chunk of it: bad luck.

Jeter still makes consistent contact (85.5 percent in 2010, MLB average 80.7 percent), and his strikeout rate (16.0 percent) remains well-below league average of 20.7 percent.

Given that he leads off for the Yankees, he remains a valuable fantasy option. Perhaps we won’t see him hit .330 for the fifth time, but a .290 average with 100 runs and approximately 20 steals keeps Jeter relevant at a very thin shortstop position.

2010 stats 739 111 10 67 18 .270
3-year average 708 102 13 67 20 .301
2011 FBI Forecast 685 100 11 70 17 .292


Image courtesy of: Amanda Rykoff

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