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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 44: Why Cincinnati Reds’ Drew Stubbs Will Approach 30 Home Runs and 40 Steals

Thu, Feb 17, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Most fantasy gurus will tell you Drew Stubbs is a popular sleeper-pick for 2011. Unfortunately for them, they’re a year late, as I predicted Stubbs’ emergence before the start of last season.

The former Texas Longhorn made me look like a genius last year, displaying a rare power/speed combo (22 HRs, 30 steals) that went unmatched.

Stubbs was the eighth overall pick in the 2006 draft, and in 2009 Baseball America claimed he “has excellent bat speed, above-average raw power, and plus-plus speed.” Hello! Based on this, Stubbs’ 2010 campaign totals shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Looking forward to 2011, I’m expecting improvements across the board for the 26-year-old outfielder. In fact, Stubbs has an outside chance at becoming the first 30/40 player since Jimmy Rollins hit 30 HRs and stole 41 bases in 2007.

While Stubbs may possess one of the most elite power/speed combos in baseball, his strikeout and contacts rates are a concern, and he’ll likely never hit for a high average. A clip in the .270 range, however, would justify a top-50 selection on draft day  (current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 172).

While there’s no telling how Dusty Baker will position his lineup, Stubbs makes the most sense in the leadoff spot. He’s not a typical high on-base guy, but his stolen base efficiency has improved in recent years; from 61 percent (23-of-38) in 2007 to 83 percent (30-of-36) last year.

If Stubbs’ 2010 second half splits (44 runs, 11 HRs, 34 RBI, 13 steals, .281/.355/.502 in 221 at-bats) are any indication, the Reds’ center fielder could be in for a monster season.

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 583 91 22 77 30 .255
2011 FBI Forecast 635 95 27 65 40 .265

 

Image courtesy of: John Thompson

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