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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 39: Pittsburgh Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen Is a Poor Man’s Carl Crawford

Sat, Feb 12, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Andrew McCutchen followed up his promising 2009 rookie campaign with 16 HRs, 33 steals and a .286 batting average last year for the Pirates.

In addition to his speed, McCutchen also offers above-average plate discipline:

  • 2010 Walk rate: 10.7 percent (MLB average 8.5 percent)
  • 2010 Strikeout rate: 15.6 percent (MLB average 20.7 percent)
  • 2010 O-Swing rate: 20.0 percent (MLB average 29.3 percent)
  • 2010 Contact rate: 84.6 percent (MLB average 80.7 percent)

McCutchen also improved his effectiveness against curveballs last season, something that previously plagued him dating back to his minor league days:

  • 2009: 2.8 runs below average vs. curveballs
  • 2010: 7.4 runs above average vs. curveballs

Unfortunately, McCutchen hasn’t developed the power that scouts once thought he had. His fantasy upside, however, is that of a poor man’s Carl Crawford.

  • 2010 McCutchen: 653 PA, 94 runs, 16 HRs, 56 RBI, 33 SB, .286 BA
  • 3-YR AVG Crawford: 663 PA, 110 runs, 19 HRs, 90 RBI, 47, .307 BA

Given an improving Pittsburgh lineup, McCutchen should see a spike in his run-scoring and run-producing totals this season. Still only 24 years old, however, 20-plus HRs remain unlikely.

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 653 94 16 56 33 .286
3-year average 382 56 9 37 18 .286
2011 FBI Forecast 670 105 18 65 35 .288

 

Image courtesy of: Serena A. Thaw

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