2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 39: Pittsburgh Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen Is a Poor Man’s Carl Crawford
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Andrew McCutchen followed up his promising 2009 rookie campaign with 16 HRs, 33 steals and a .286 batting average last year for the Pirates.
In addition to his speed, McCutchen also offers above-average plate discipline:
- 2010 Walk rate: 10.7 percent (MLB average 8.5 percent)
- 2010 Strikeout rate: 15.6 percent (MLB average 20.7 percent)
- 2010 O-Swing rate: 20.0 percent (MLB average 29.3 percent)
- 2010 Contact rate: 84.6 percent (MLB average 80.7 percent)
McCutchen also improved his effectiveness against curveballs last season, something that previously plagued him dating back to his minor league days:
- 2009: 2.8 runs below average vs. curveballs
- 2010: 7.4 runs above average vs. curveballs
Unfortunately, McCutchen hasn’t developed the power that scouts once thought he had. His fantasy upside, however, is that of a poor man’s Carl Crawford.
- 2010 McCutchen: 653 PA, 94 runs, 16 HRs, 56 RBI, 33 SB, .286 BA
- 3-YR AVG Crawford: 663 PA, 110 runs, 19 HRs, 90 RBI, 47, .307 BA
Given an improving Pittsburgh lineup, McCutchen should see a spike in his run-scoring and run-producing totals this season. Still only 24 years old, however, 20-plus HRs remain unlikely.
|2011 FBI Forecast||670||105||18||65||35||.288|
The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
- Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
- Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
- No. 31: Joe Mauer
- No. 32: Victor Martinez
- No. 33: Cliff Lee
- No. 34: Nelson Cruz
- No. 35: Jason Heyward
- No. 36: Justin Upton
- No. 37: Josh Johnson
- No. 38: Ian Kinsler
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
- Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
- Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
- Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
- Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
- 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
- 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
Tags: Andrew McCutchen