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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 38: Is Texas Rangers’ Ian Kinsler an Elite Asset, or a High-Risk Tease?

Fri, Feb 11, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

When evaluating Ian Kinsler, it’s important to understand how good he is, and how disappointing he’s been.

In 2009, Kinsler posted just the fifth 30/30 season among second basemen since 2000. Unfortunately, it came with a career-low .253 batting average in a career-high 144 games.

In 2010, Kinsler managed just nine HRs and 15 steals in only 103 games (due to leg and ankle injuries), though his batting averaged jumped to .283.

So what should we expect in 2011?

Well, at least one DL stint. Other than that, it’s tough to say. Rangers manager Ron Washington has hinted at positioning Kinsler in the leadoff spot this season, something he did for most of the 2008 and 2009 seasons. This would likely aid his run-scoring and stolen base totals, but might change his approach at the plate.

Either way, Kinsler has top-10 potential.

In fact, when comparing three-year averages to players at his position with similar power/speed skills, Kinsler matches up quite well:

  • Chase Utley: 143 G, 635 PA, 100 R, 27 HR, 87 RBI, 17 SB, .284 BA
  • Dustin Pedroia: 129 G, 597 PA, 95 R, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 16 SB, .307 BA
  • Ian Kinsler: 123 G, 561 PA, 92 R, 19 HR, 67 RBI, 24 SB, .285 BA

Heck, if Kinsler had played in as many games as Utley over the last three seasons, he might be considered the top second baseman heading into 2011. Instead, he’s fifth among two-baggers, No. 38 overall.

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 460 73 9 45 15 .286
3-year average 561 92 19 67 24 .285
2011 FBI Forecast 590 90 18 75 25 .281

 

Image courtesy of: Dennis Adair

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