2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 27: Why St. Louis Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright Is Better Than Tim Lincecum & Felix Hernandez
Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.
Over the last two years, Adam Wainwright has established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in fantasy baseball. His three-year averages in wins (17), BB/9 (2.36), ERA (2.68) and WHIP (1.14) are all better than those of Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez.
Since 2007 (Wainwright’s first full season in the majors), the towering right-hander has improved on his formerly average strikeout and walk rates:
- 2007: 6.06 K/9
- 2008: 6.20 K/9
- 2009: 8.19 K/9
- 2010: 8.32 K/9
- 2007: 3.12 BB/9
- 2008: 2.32 BB/9
- 2009: 2.55 BB/9
- 2010: 2.19 BB/9
In 2010, Wainwright was the only pitcher in baseball to record a value of 10 runs above average with three different pitchers (fastball, slider, curveball). In fact, Wainwright’s curveball was the best in the majors last season, checking in at 22.4 runs above average.
Looking forward to 2011, there’s nothing to suggest a letdown. A tiny regression to the mean from his 2010 ERA of 2.42 may be in order, but it shouldn’t be a big one. Expect another dominant performance from the 29-year-old in 2011.
|2011 FBI Forecast||220||18||8.40||2.30||2.70||1.17|
Image courtesy of: John Thompson
Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:
- Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
- Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
- No. 21: Dustin Pedroia
- No. 22: Chase Utley
- No. 23: Ryan Zimmerman
- No. 24: Jose Reyes
- No. 25: Josh Hamilton
- No. 26: Shin-Soo Choo
MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:
- Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
- Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
- Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
- Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:
- The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
- 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
- 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options
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