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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 27: Why St. Louis Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright Is Better Than Tim Lincecum & Felix Hernandez

Fri, Feb 4, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the last two years, Adam Wainwright has established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in fantasy baseball. His three-year averages in wins (17), BB/9 (2.36), ERA (2.68) and WHIP (1.14) are all better than those of Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez.

Since 2007 (Wainwright’s first full season in the majors), the towering right-hander has improved on his formerly average strikeout and walk rates:

Strikeout Rate

  • 2007: 6.06 K/9
  • 2008: 6.20 K/9
  • 2009: 8.19 K/9
  • 2010: 8.32 K/9

Walk Rate

  • 2007: 3.12 BB/9
  • 2008: 2.32 BB/9
  • 2009: 2.55 BB/9
  • 2010: 2.19 BB/9

In 2010, Wainwright was the only pitcher in baseball to record a value of 10 runs above average with three different pitchers (fastball, slider, curveball). In fact, Wainwright’s curveball was the best in the majors last season, checking in at 22.4 runs above average.

Looking forward to 2011, there’s nothing to suggest a letdown. A tiny regression to the mean from his 2010 ERA of 2.42 may be in order, but it shouldn’t be a big one. Expect another dominant performance from the 29-year-old in 2011.

  IP W K/9 BB/9 ERA WHIP
2010 stats 230.1 20 8.32 2.19 2.42 1.05
3-year average 198.2 17 7.80 2.36 2.68 1.14
2011 FBI Forecast 220 18 8.40 2.30 2.70 1.17

 

Image courtesy of: John Thompson

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