Despite posting a sub-3.40 ERA for the fifth consecutive season in 2010, CC Sabathia’s peripheral stats uncover some alarming trends. Much like fellow southpaw Johan Santana after his age-27 season, Sabathia has regressed in several statistical categories over the last three seasons.
In 2007, Santana’s age-27 season, many of his peripheral stats began to trend in the wrong direction. They were almost unnoticeable, however, because the starting point was so high…
Ready to be blown away?
Since 2005, only one major league pitcher (with at least 900 innings) has an ERA lower than that of Roy Halladay. It’s not Johan Santana. Or Roy Oswalt. Or CC Sabathia. Or Felix Hernandez.
Over the last six seasons, no qualifying pitcher has an ERA lower than Chris Carpenter’s mark of 2.88. His dominance has come despite missing all but four starts between 2007 and 2008 due to Tommy John surgery, and he’s still posting ridiculous numbers.
But nobody seems to notice…
Much like Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander has given us three very different looks in the last three seasons.
In 2008, Verlander posted ugly strikeout (7.30) and walk (3.90) rates, and an even uglier ERA (4.84) on his way to losing 17 games.
In 2009, Verlander flipped the switch, setting career bests in K/9 (10.09), BB/9 (2.36), ERA (3.45) and wins (19). His FIP (2.80) and xFIP (3.26) suggested he was (and would continue to be) even better.
2010 brought a more realistic, yet still very good version of Verlander. In his fourth consecutive season logging 200-plus innings, Verlander settled in with 18 wins, a 3.37 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.79 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9. His FIP (2.97) and xFIP (3.68) didn’t suggest anything out of the ordinary…
Justin Morneau is very much like Prince Fielder, in that you’re never quite sure what you’re going to get.
In 2008, Morneau hit .300 with 23 HRs and 129 RBI. The next year, he hit just .274 with 30 HRs and 100 RBI. Last season, Morneau’s seemingly career season (18 HRs, 56 RBI, .345 in 81 games) was cut short in early July due to a concussion.
Looking forward to 2011, it’s tough to know what to expect from the former A.L. MVP…
Adam Dunn is an easy player to overlook. If you’ve ever owned him, you know it’s nearly impossible to trade the guy thanks to his .250 lifetime average.
On the other hand, only Albert Pujols (294) has hit more home runs than Dunn (282) since 2004. And it’s not like Dunn’s numbers have been up and down since then, either. In fact, he’s been fairly consistent, posting HR totals ranging from 38 (in 2009 and 2010) to 46 (in 2004).
Perhaps most impressive is Dunn’s ability to stay healthy. (Fasten your seat belts for this one.) Since 2004, Dunn has missed a total of 26 games. Chipper Jones, on the other hand, has missed an average of 40 games per season during that same time frame…