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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 20: Why Boston Red Sox’s Kevin Youkilis Is More Valuable Than Ryan Zimmerman

Thu, Jan 27, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Kevin Youkilis’ current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 30.89, nearly 11 spots below where we believe he belongs. The thing fantasy managers may be forgetting is that Youkilis will re-gain third base eligibility this season, which is a huge deal considering the lack of depth at the hot corner.

A few things to consider: Youkilis has a better three-year batting average than David Wright, Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Zimmerman. In fact, his three-year averages across the board top that of the favored Zimmerman, despite the fact that Youkilis has missed a total of 103 games over the last three seasons.

Still not convinced?

Youkilis has increased his OPS every season of his career:

  • 2004: .780
  • 2005: .805
  • 2006: .810
  • 2007: .843
  • 2008: .958 (12th best in MLB)
  • 2009 .961 (5th best in MLB)
  • 2010: .975 (7th best in MLB)

At 32, Youkilis’ plate discipline remains stellar, as he posted well above-average ratios in 2010:

  • BB/K ratio (0.87, MLB average: 0.46)
  • Contact rate (87.0 percent, MLB average: 80.7 percent)
  •  Swinging strike rate (4.9 percent, MLB average: 8.5 percent)

Given 550 to 600 plate appearances in 2011, Boston’s No. 5 hitter (sandwiched between Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz) is poised to post the fourth-best line among third basemen.  

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 435 77 19 62 4 .307
3-year average 548 89 25 90 5 .308
2011 FBI Forecast 600 100 28 110 5 .302

 

Image courtesy of: Dennis Adair

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