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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 16: Why St. Louis Cardinals’ Matt Holliday Is Better Than Kemp, Hamilton & Upton

Mon, Jan 24, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Some fantasy baseball sites have Matt Holliday ranked behind fellow outfielders such as Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton and Justin Upton. We’re not one of those sites, however, as we believe Holliday will be the fourth best outfielder in 2011, and here’s why:

Consistency and durability are very important with your first few picks, and Holliday fits the mold while the others don’t. In fact, despite playing the last two seasons in Oakland and St. Louis (not Colorado), Holliday boasts the most impressive three-year averages of the group:

  • Holliday: 99 runs, 26 HRs, 100 RBI, 17 steals, .315 batting average
  • Kemp: 91 runs, 24 HRs, 89 RBI, 29 steals, .279 batting average
  • Hamilton: 79 runs, 25 HRs, 95 RBI, 8 steals, .315 batting average
  • Upton: 70 runs, 19 HRs, 66 RBI, 12 steals, .277 batting average

Holliday has even managed to cut down on his strikeout rate since his departure from Coors Field in 2008:

  • 2008: 19.3%
  • 2009: 17.4%
  • 2010: 15.6%

Holliday has also increased his fly ball rates in each of the last three seasons while sustaining consistent HR totals (24, 25, 28) and .310-plus batting averages.

Given his position in the Cardinals lineup behind Albert Pujols and in front of the newly acquired Lance Berkman, Holliday is poised for another great season. The 31-year-old isn’t generally referred to as a five-category contributor, but that’s exactly what he is. Draft him with confidence.

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 675 95 28 103 9 .312
3-year average 656 99 26 100 17 .315
2011 FBI Forecast 675 100 29 110 10 .316

 

Image courtesy of: John Thompson

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