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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 14: Why Position Scarcity Helps New York Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez Remain A Top-15 Pick

Sun, Jan 23, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Alex Rodriguez has a lot working against him heading into 2011. The 35-year-old has missed a total of 87 games over the last three seasons. He’s failed to hit at least 35 HRs in each of the last two seasons, a total he previously maintained for 11 consecutive years dating back to 1998.

A-Roid’s batting average and slugging percentage (and therefore his isolated power as well) have declined progressively over the last four seasons:

Batting Average

  • 2007: .314
  • 2008: .302
  • 2009: .286
  • 2010: .270

Slugging Percentage

  • 2007: .645
  • 2008: .573
  • 2009: .532
  • 2010: .506

Isolated Power

  • 2007: .331
  • 2008: .271
  • 2009: .245
  • 2010: .236

Despite all this, A-Rod has managed to maintain his incredible streak of 13 years with at least 30 HRs and 100 RBI. Given 550 at-bats, the Yankees’ cleanup hitter is likely to extend that streak to 14 years, making him the third-ranked player at the surprisingly thin hot corner position in 2011.

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 595 74 30 125 4 .270
3-year average 575 85 32 109 12 .286
2011 FBI Forecast 630 90 30 115 10 .284

 

Image courtesy of: Dennis Adair

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