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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 9: Why Fenway Park & Boston’s Lineup Make Red Sox’s Carl Crawford a Top-10 Pick

Thu, Jan 20, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Carl Crawford has always had below-average power (13 HRs per in eight full seasons), and top-flight speed (50 steals per season). However, Crawford hit a career-high 19 bombs in 2010 while also posting a personal best .188 ISO power (slugging percentage minus batting average).

After signing a monster seven-year $142 million contract last month with the Boston Red Sox, the 29-year-old will likely bat second or third in a lineup featuring Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. Given his lineup surroundings and Fenway’s short fence in right field, the left-handed hitting Crawford may finally surpass 20 home runs in 2011.

This, in addition to his history of durability (150-plus games in six of the last eight seasons), his ability to maintain a .300 batting average (something he’s done in five of the last six seasons), and his potential to swipe 50-plus bases give Crawford the nod over Carlos Gonzalez as our second-ranked outfielder heading into 2011.

If Crawford does indeed reach the 20 HR, 50 steal, .300 batting average plateau, he’ll be the first player to do so since Hanley Ramirez posted a ridiculous 29/51/.332 line in 2007.

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 663 110 19 90 47 .307
3-year average 606 92 14 72 44 .297
2011 FBI Forecast 675 120 21 100 45 .309

 

Image courtesy of: Chris Smith

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