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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 6: Why New York Mets’ David Wright Should Be Drafted Ahead of Evan Longoria

Tue, Jan 18, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Injuries and a pitcher-friendly Citi Field have plagued the Mets bats over the last two seasons, including David Wright’s.

From 2005 to 2008, David Wright dominated National League pitching with season averages of 106 runs, 29 HRs, 112 RBI, 29 steals and a .311 batting average. 2009, Citi Field’s inaugural season, yielded much different results, as Wright posted career-lows (not counting his shortened rookie season) in runs (88), home runs (10), and RBI (72), and an alarming strikeout rate of 26.2 percent.

2010 saw Wright recapture his power, whacking 29 bombs while driving in 103 runs. He also swiped 19 bases and hit .283. His strikeout rate, however, increased for the third consecutive season:

K%

  • 2008: 18.8%
  • 2009: 26.2%
  • 2010: 27.4%

Wright, generally known for his excellent plate discipline, has also seen his walk rate decrease in each of the last four seasons:

BB%

  • 2007: 13.2%
  • 2008: 12.8%
  • 2009: 12.0%
  • 2010: 10.3%

While these trends are somewhat discouraging, a healthy Jose Reyes (missed 29 games in 2010), Carlos Beltran (missed 98 games in 2010), and Jason Bay (missed 67 games in 2010) could go a long way towards helping Wright reverse those trends and returning to his 2007 30/100/100/30/.300 form – a ceiling above that of fellow third baseman Evan Longoria.

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 670 87 29 103 19 .283
3-year average 675 97 24 100 20 .297
2011 FBI Forecast 680 95 33 110 20 .298

 

Image courtesy of: M. Zeising

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