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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 5: Why Fenway Park Could Help Boston Red Sox’s Adrian Gonzalez Hit 50 Home Runs

Tue, Jan 18, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Out of all the free agent signings and trade acquisitions over the off-season, Adrian Gonzalez stands to gain the most in terms of fantasy value.

Over the last three seasons, the left-handed slugger has hit 36, 40 and 31 home runs while playing half his games at Petco Park, one of the least homer-friendly stadiums in baseball. Fantasy managers have been praying for his release from Petco, and here’s why:

In five seasons with the Padres, Gonzalez posted very disturbing home/road splits.

  • Home: 397 games, 185 runs, 57 HRs, 201 RBI, .266 batting average
  • Away: 402 games, 279 runs, 104 HRs, 300 RBI, .307 batting average

Projected over 162 games, Gonzalez’s road splits (essentially every N.L. park not named Petco) yield 112 runs, 42 HRs and 121 RBI.

Fast forward to 2011. Take those road numbers, divide by two, and add 81 games at Fenway Park batting fourth behind Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford and Dustin Pedroia and in front of Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. This all adds up to a career year for Gonzalez, who in his age 29 season, has a chance to blast 50 homers and post a career best batting average in 2011.

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 693 87 31 101 0 .298
3-year average 691 93 36 106 0 .285
2011 FBI Forecast 700 105 44 130 0 .313

 

Image courtesy of: Dirk Hansen

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