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2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 4: Why Colorado Rockies’ Troy Tulowitzki Is A Top-5 Pick

Mon, Jan 17, 2011

Big Board, Player Projections

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Despite missing nearly six weeks last year with a broken wrist, Troy Tulowitzki was the only shortstop to hit more than 25 home runs in 2010. A red-hot month of September which saw him hit .322 (37-for-115), with an incredible 15 HRs and 40 RBI carried countless owners to fantasy baseball championships and landed him at No. 4 on our 2011 big board.

Though he’s been plagued by DL stints in two of the last three seasons, Tulowitzki has proven himself over the last four years to be capable of top-five production. While the rarefied air at Coors Field has undoubtedly contributed to his numbers, Tulowitzki has been very good on the road as well. Consider his home/road splits from last season:

  • Home: 236 at-bats, 51 runs, 15 HRs, 59 RBI, .339 BA
  • Road: 234 at-bats, 38 runs, 12 RBI, 36 RBI, .291 BA

Unlike teammate Carlos Gonzalez (who hit 91 points lower on the road than he did at home last season) Tulowitzki produces no matter where he hits.

If you pass on Tulo with the fourth pick, the production drop-off at shortstop is substantial. Don’t get stuck choosing between Jhonny Peralta and Jason Bartlett in the later rounds; fill your need with the game’s second-best shortstop while you can.

Oh, by the way, Tulowitzki is only 26 years old. The best has yet to come.

  PA R HR RBI SB AVG
2010 stats 529 89 27 95 11 .315
3-year average 526 79 22 77 11 .294
2011 FBI Forecast 625 100 31 110 15 .305

 

Image courtesy of: Dirk Hansen

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