Tue, Jun 29, 2010
While Colorado’s ace has struggled in his last two starts, Johnson has continued to dominate.
After a closer look, it’s become obvious that Johnson has out-dueled the N.L. Cy Young favorite through the first three months in nearly every major pitching category:
FIP (fielder independent pitching) is a stat that measures factors only the pitcher can control. This helps us understand how well a pitcher has pitched, regardless of the defense behind him.
xFIP (expected fielder independent pitching) is an experimental stat which adjusts FIP and “normalizes” home run totals. Because research has indicated that home runs are a result of fly balls allowed and home parks, xFIP can be used to measure a pitcher’s expected ERA based on the average number of homers allowed per fly ball. This is a better indicator of a pitcher’s future ERA.
Using these stats to evaluate the two pitchers, we can conclude that:
- Johnson (2.47 FIP) has been better than Jimenez (3.07) this season.
- Johnson (3.16 xFIP) should continue to out-pitch Jimenez (3.68 xFIP) in the future.
Even if you toss out Jimenez’s recent struggles, (which have accounted for 18 percent of his totals hits allowed and 43 percent of his total earned runs allowed this season), you can still argue that Johnson has been just as good:
Taking it one step further, Johnson has clearly out-performed Jimenez in other pitching categories such as:
- O-Swing rate (percent of swings at pitches off the plate)
- Contact rate (percent of contact made on all pitches)
- First pitch strike rate (percent of first pitch strikes thrown)
- Swinging strike rate (percent of pitches which result in swinging strike)
|O-Swing %||Contact %||F-Strike %||SwStr%|
In fact, Jimenez has been no more than an average pitcher by these standards, while Johnson ranks 17th, 3rd, 12th, and 2nd in these categories among qualified starters.
Now don’t get it twisted; I envy Ubaldo’s ridiculous pitching repertoire as much as the next guy. I refused to be blinded by win totals and ESPN, however, and therefore believe that Josh Johnson has been (and will continue to be) the better pitcher.
Image courtesy of: Michael G. Baron
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