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Fantasy Baseball Insiders Buy Or Sell: Troy Glaus

Mon, Jun 7, 2010

Buy or Sell?, Player Projections

Image courtesy of: Leon Kwan

After nine weeks of play, Braves’ first basemen Troy Glaus is tied with Albert Pujols and Evan Longoria for fifth on the major’s RBI leader board with 44.  

Given his age and supposed injury propensity, most fantasy managers are looking to turn a profit on Glaus’ hot start. Instead, they should be seeking his services, as the former UCLA Bruin’s torrid start is no fluke.

Prior to appearing in just 14 games last season due to shoulder surgery, Glaus averaged 502 at-bats in the previous four seasons (’05-’08). Now that he’s played in all of Atlanta’s 57 games this season, it’s safe to say those injury concerns are behind him.

Playing the majority of the 2010 season at age 33, Glaus is two years younger than Vladimir Guerrero, three years younger than Ichiro Suzuki and Bobby Abreu, and 14 years the junior of the Ageless Wonder.

Playing for a new contract this off season, Glaus clearly has a lot left in the tank.

Glaus’s impressive line of 30 runs, 11 homers, 44 RBI and a .274 batting average thus far has been a pleasant surprise, but a quick glimpse of his FanGraphs page suggests this type of production is to be expected.

His 2010 walk and strikeout rates are nearly identical to his career marks, as are his current line drive, ground ball, fly ball and homer-to-fly ball rates. Because of this, there’s little reason to suggest Glaus won’t be an asset for the remaining four months of the fantasy baseball season.

While it may be unreasonable to expect another 28-RBI month such as the one he posted in May, Glaus is likely to approach 25 homers and 95 RBI for the seventh time in his 13-year career.

Current pace:

560 at-bats, 85 runs, 31 HR, 125 RBI, .274 batting average

FBI Forecast (season total):

502 at-bats, 76 runs, 28 HR, 112 RBI, .268 batting average

FBI Forecast (rest of season):

305 at-bats, 46 runs, 17 HR, 68 RBI, .265 batting average

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