2010 Projections: Why Reds’ Outfielder Jay Bruce Will Hit 35 Home Runs in 2010
Mon, Mar 22, 2010 by Nick Kappel
Image courtesy of: Dennis Adair
In 2008, Jay Bruce ranked among the top prospects in baseball. In fact, Baseball America claimed “every one of (his) tools is better than average”. Our friends at BA rated his power as high as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, acknowledged his ability to hit for average, and even proclaimed Bruce capable of stealing 15 to 20 bases a season.
Two years later, Bruce appears primed for stardom, though most fantasy managers don’t realize it.
The 2005 first rounder posted a lowly .223 batting average in 2009, which explains the limited fanfare. What most don’t realize is that Bruce posted the second-lowest BABIP among players with 350-plus plate appearances last season. This suggests an increase in batting average is on the horizon.
If you’re able to buy into the low BABIP theory, there’s no reason to not like this guy. Consider the following:
- The soon-to-be 23-year old Bruce has averaged 17.6 at-bats between HRs during two seasons at the big league level. Comparatively, Miguel Cabrera owns a career mark of 18.8 at-bats per HR.
- Bruce hit 22 HRs in just 345 at-bats in 2009. Projected over 600 at-bats, his HR total is a whopping 38.
- Despite his unlucky struggles at the plate last season, Bruce increased his walks and decreased his strikeouts from 2008. He also swung less at pitches outside the strike zone, and made contact on pitches within the zone at a higher rate.
Despite missing two months last season with a broken wrist, Bruce returned to hit .326 with four long balls and 17 RBI in 18 games upon his late-season return from the DL. The big lefty has picked up where he left off this spring, totaling two HRs, three steals and a .333 batting average in 30 at-bats.
Given a full season batting fifth or sixth in the potent Cincinnati lineup, the Texas native appears primed to smash 35 HRs. In fact, baseball statistician Bill James agrees, predicting a lofty 38-HR total.
Bruce’s current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 120, meaning Michael Bourn, Jason Bartlett and Alexei Ramirez are all being drafted ahead of him. Don’t make this mistake in your drafts; nab the soon-to-be top 50 keeper before it’s too late.
FBI Forecast: 550 at-bats, 75 runs, 35 HRs, 90 RBI, 10 stolen bases, .275 batting average
More 2010 Fantasy Baseball Insiders player projections:
Tags: Alexei Ramirez, Jason Bartlett, Jay Bruce, Michael Bourn, Miguel Cabrera
Thank God a credible web site backs up this article. I first spotted it on bleacher report and not only is everything written on Bleacher Report completely off base and crap, but it never happens.
It’s like one conjectured Madden video game trade speculated after another. There’s no discression at all on what goes on a Bleacher report site, so I stopped reading it.
I don’t think Bruce hits 35. But I think if he plays all year and can hit around .270 he’ll hit 30, which would be nice progress for him. Just staying healthy is the key.
Hey there,
Thanks for stopping by. I have mixed feelings about B/R. On one hand, it allows ANYONE to write – this can be good or bad – depending on how you look at it. Hey, we’ve all got to start somewhere.
Anyway, I appreciate your kind words. By the looks of your site’s content, you’re probably a Reds fan. It’s always good to get another insider’s view. If you’re projecting Bruce to hit .270 with 30 HRs, we’re not too far off. Either way, those numbers aren’t congruent with his current ADP.
Thanks again! I hope you plan on coming back often.